According to authorities, the US plans to keep some forces in Niger while pullout negotiations are ongoing.

 

While a broad withdrawal order has been issued to allow the departure of the majority of the less than 1,000 US troops in the West African nation, US officials are attempting to negotiate an agreement with the military junta that took over Niger last July to leave behind a small contingent of US forces.

The civilian head of US special operations told this week that although some US officials have begun talking to Niger about the details of the withdrawal, the Pentagon has not yet had more in-depth discussions with Niger, which will primarily center on the logistics of the withdrawal.  According to officials, a US group is scheduled to visit Niger this weekend to deliberate on the implementation process.  "We will make the most of the circumstances that have been placed before us, but the goal is to bring Niger down to a level that Nigerians can tolerate," Undersecretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict Chris Maier

"The government of Niger has made a very significant choice to have us leave or at least reduce our numbers," Maier remarked.  A deal to permit US military flights into and out of Niger is one of the matters defense officials need to settle in their discussions with the administration. One US official told  that since the coup in July, foreign militaries have not been able to conduct military flights over Niger without first submitting individual requests for airspace.

According to a US military officer, the departure will happen gradually over several months. The dismantling of anything that is not required for life, safety, or security is currently taking place, and it is being prepared for export. The footprint will gradually decrease as employees and equipment that are no longer considered essential are relocated elsewhere.  The insider added that although talks are still going on, the expectation that there will be a small contingent of US troops staying in the nation is essentially wishful thinking because Niger's government has made it plain that it wants the troops to go.

According to US officials, the unstable situation in Niger is only the most recent indication of the continent of Africa becoming more unstable. Over the past several years, a series of military takeovers have threatened American power in the region and provided Russia with an opening to expand its influence. Although the US military has a minimal presence in the continent and is mostly concentrated on counterterrorism operations, authorities also see Africa as being crucial to Russia and the US's worldwide struggle for influence.

Russian personnel have been working in several camps of the same base that houses US troops for a number of months now, following the termination of Niger's military government's military accord with the US in March.  The US presence on the continent is already unstable due to Niger's expulsion of US personnel and Chad's threat to revoke their status of forces agreement. A third US official stated that the loss of US forces in Chad may be a sign of things to come for security and US influence on the continent, despite the fact that it is a less evident military defeat.

A "several of countries" in Africa were "near the tipping point of actually being seized by the Russian Federation as they are propagating some of their fake narratives," US Africa Command chief Gen. Michael Langley told Congress in March.In support of this, Maier repeated that China and Russia have "spent a lot more than we have" in information operations, which aids in the expansion of their influence.  According to US sources, the US finds it challenging to directly compete with what Russia is willing to provide some of the military leaders who have overthrown governments in Africa. In the fight against terrorism, Russia may provide prompt security help, including weaponry, with significantly less restrictions than US aid.

"Among other things, what worries me is that the partnership that is essential to our hopes of helping these countries is either no longer there, or has been replaced in some cases by the Russian elixir that promises faster results, which may be what some of these governments—especially the coup governments—think they need in the short term," Maier stated.  The second US source expressed concern that rising unrest may divide a region of Africa into which the US is unable to conduct business safely but where Russia may be able to.That might have significant security ramifications outside of Africa, especially if it jeopardizes the US military's safe access to the Mediterranean, where it has been stationed since Hamas invaded Israel in October.

The US "may be in a scenario where we are increasingly on the outside looking in" with regard to Africa, Maier added. However, he went on, it might offer a chance to demonstrate the futility of Russia's overtures to African countries.  He remarked, "Now that some of these coup regimes have made the decision to side with the Russians, they are the dog who caught the automobile." And with time, the facts will begin to outweigh even the most sophisticated misinformation and disinformation if there are no results in terms of security space as well as many other aspects of government.