China has constructed a nuclear reactor prototype to power aircraft carriers, according to research.
In terms of numbers, China already has the largest fleet in the world, and it has been modernising quickly. In a growing global threat to the United States, adding nuclear-powered carriers to its fleet would be a significant step towards achieving its goals of having a truly "blue-water" force that can operate in waters far from China.
Tong Zhao, a senior scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C., stated that China would join the select group of first-class naval powers, which are now only comprised of the United States and France, if it were to acquire nuclear-powered carriers. "Such a development would represent national prestige for China's leadership, fostering domestic nationalism and enhancing the nation's reputation as a major power on a global scale."
The discovery was made by researchers at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California, who were looking into a mountain location outside of Leshan in the Sichuan province of southwest China where they believed China was constructing a reactor to produce tritium or plutonium for use in weapons.
Rather, they came to the conclusion that China was constructing a huge warship's prototype reactor. The Longwei, or Dragon Might, Project is the name given to the project in Leshan; in documents, it is also known as the Nuclear Power Development Project.
Requests for response were not answered by China's Foreign Affairs or Defence Ministries.
Public records and satellite photos assisted in identifying the likely carrier project.
The Middlebury team's research is the first to demonstrate that China is developing a nuclear-powered propulsion system for a carrier-sized surface warship, despite long-standing rumours that the country is preparing to build a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.Jeffrey Lewis, a Middlebury professor and one of the project's researchers, said, "The reactor prototype at Leshan is the first concrete proof that China is, in fact, developing a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier." "China appears poised to become a member of the elite group of countries that operate nuclear-powered aircraft carriers."
They came to the conclusion that a prototype reactor for naval propulsion was being built in the mountains of Mucheng township, about 70 miles (112 kilometres) southwest of Chengdu, the provincial capital of Sichuan, based on satellite images and publicly available documents such as project tenders, personnel files, environmental impact studies, and even a citizen's complaint about noisy construction and excessive dust.
According to the analysis, the reactor, which procurement documents show will soon be operational, is located in a new facility called Base 909 that was constructed on the site and houses six additional reactors that are either operational, decommissioned, or in the process of being built. The Nuclear Power Institute of China, a division of the China National Nuclear Corporation, is in charge of the site and is responsible for reactor engineering testing and research.
The conclusion that the large reactor is a prototype for a next-generation aircraft carrier was aided by documents showing that China's 701 Institute, formerly known as the China Ship Research and Design Centre, which is in charge of developing aircraft carriers, purchased reactor equipment "intended for installation on a large surface warship" under the Nuclear Power Development Project and the project's "national defence designation."
Homes have been demolished and water intake infrastructure connected to the reactor site constructed, according to satellite images taken between 2020 and 2023. According to the researchers, contracts for turbine pumps and steam generators show that the project includes a pressurised water reactor with a secondary circuit, which is a profile typical of naval propulsion reactors.
The Longwei Project is described as a "national defense-related construction project" that is "secret" in an environmental impact report.
Researchers wrote in a comprehensive 19-page report on their findings, which was exclusively shared with the AP, "The Nuclear Power Development Project most certainly refers to a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier development effort, unless China is developing nuclear-powered cruisers, which were only pursued by the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War."
According to Jamie Withorne, an Oslo Nuclear Project analyst who examined the research but was not involved in it, Middlebury's team presented a "convincing argument."
"I think it is likely that the Longwei Project is housed at Base 909, and it could possibly be located at the identified building," she stated, citing identifying reports, co-location with other naval reactor facilities, and corresponding development activities.
However, she noted, the study doesn't offer any hints as to when a Chinese nuclear-powered carrier may be constructed and put into service.
The results were "carefully conducted and thoroughly researched," according to Sarah Laderman, a senior analyst with Open Nuclear Network, an initiative of the US-based non-governmental organisation PAX sapiens foundation.
Laderman, who is headquartered in Vienna and was not engaged in Middlebury's research, stated, "Given the evidence presented here, I see a compelling case made that China seems to be working towards building a nuclear propulsion system for its naval surface ships (likely aircraft carriers) at this location."
Search for a carrier powered by nuclear
China's first carrier was a reconditioned Soviet vessel that was put into service in 2012; its second carrier was constructed in China using a Soviet design. Both ships, the Liaoning and the Shandong, use a launch technique known as the "ski-jump," which involves a ramp at the end of a short runway to aid in aircraft takeoff.
Launched in 2022, the Type 003 Fujian was the nation's third carrier and the first to be planned and constructed domestically. It uses a launch system of the electromagnetic kind, similar to those created and employed by the US Navy. Each of the three carriers has a traditional power source.
The building of a fourth carrier was confirmed by Yuan Huazhi, the political commissar for China's People's Liberation Army Navy, in March, before sea testing for the Fujian had even begun. When asked if it will have nuclear power, he replied that it would "soon be announced," but that hasn't happened yet.
There have been rumours that China would start building two new carriers simultaneously, one nuclear-powered Type 004 and one Type 003 like the Fujian. This is something the country has never tried before, but its shipyards are capable of.
China's future carrier won't likely be nuclear-powered, according to Matthew Funaiole, senior fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies' China Power Project. The People's Liberation Army Navy's fourth carrier, he suggested, should instead concentrate on making "incremental improvements" to the Fujian ship's current design.
The Chinese "have taken an incremental approach to their carrier development with a number of ambitions that will evolve over time," according to Nick Childs, senior fellow for naval forces and maritime security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
"They have so far been fairly cautious in their deployments, staying mostly within shore support's reach while exerting influence and, to some extent, coercion within their near waters."
But eventually, "they will have more options to project power from larger carriers more like their US counterparts," Childs stated.
Building a carrier and putting it into service takes years, but China will eventually have more power to operate sophisticated equipment like radars, electromagnetic launchers, and new technology weaponry if it develops nuclear propulsion for its upcoming generation of warships, according to Childs.
According to Childs, "nuclear power means that there will be room aboard for fuel and weapons for its aircraft, extending their capabilities, in addition to eliminating the need for the ship to refuel regularly, giving it much greater range."
"The addition of nuclear power will represent a significant step further in China's carrier development with a vessel more comparable to the US Navy's carriers, though much will depend on the overall size of the next carrier."
Nuclear-powered carriers would give the Chinese military "more flexibility and endurance to operate around strategic hotspots, especially along the First Island Chain, where most territories disputed by China are located," according to Zhao, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The self-governing island of Taiwan, which China claims as its own and promises to annex by force if necessary, is part of the First Island Chain.
In the case of an invasion or blockade, the US might support Taiwan from its facilities in the Pacific, and it is required by domestic law to give the island with enough armaments to fend off an invasion. In the South China Sea, tensions have also increased between China and its neighbours due to maritime claims and territorial disputes.
Zhao stated that these carriers might also expand Chinese operations farther into the Western Pacific, making it more difficult for the US military to "intervene" in regional issues that China believes should only be handled by regional nations.
US-China competition
As part of his plan for the nation's revitalisation, Chinese President Xi Jinping has given defence officials the mission of developing a "first-class" navy and turning the nation into a maritime power.
The Chinese navy was adapting to strategic demands by "speeding up the transition of its tasks from defence on the near seas to protection missions on the far seas," according to the nation's most recent white paper on national defence, published in 2019.
With over 370 ships and submarines, the People's Liberation Army Navy is currently the biggest navy in the world. China also has strong shipbuilding capabilities; according to a US Senate report late last year, Chinese shipyards are producing hundreds of ships annually, while US shipyards are only producing five or fewer.
In many ways, nevertheless, the Chinese military falls short of the US military. Among other benefits, the US presently possesses 11 nuclear-powered carriers that enable it to maintain numerous strike groups deployed globally, including in the Indo-Pacific, at all times.
However, China's accelerated fleet modernisation, particularly the development and building of aircraft carriers, is causing the Pentagon to become more and more anxious.
In its most recent report to Congress on China's military, the Defence Department stated that this is in line with China's "increasing demands" and "growing emphasis on the maritime domain" for its navy "to operate at greater distances from mainland China."
Additionally, the paper stated that China's "increasing fleet of aircraft carriers allows for operations farther from China's shore by extending air defence coverage of deployed task groups beyond the range of land-based defences."
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