China is keeping an eye on the US election but is not optimistic about improved relations.
However, in China, where election news is funneled through carefully restricted official and social media, the emphasis has been on spectacle rather than content, with the belief that tensions between the US and China will persist regardless of the outcome.
Before the polls opened, Beijing resident Li Shuo told , "To us ordinary Chinese people, whoever becomes the US president, whether it is candidate A or candidate B, it is all the same."
That may be partly due to the widespread belief in China, among policymakers and common people alike, that the US administration is set up to limit China's worldwide rise, whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris is elected.
During his last term, Trump used racist rhetoric to characterize the virus that causes COVID-19, which was initially discovered in China, imposed taxes on hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of Chinese goods, and launched a campaign against Huawei, a major telecom company in China.
There has been an attempt to stabilize communication and a change in tone during the last four years of President Joe Biden's administration. With Biden targeting Chinese tech industries with export and investment controls and tariffs, as well as seeming to veer away from longstanding US policy by voicing support for Taiwan—a "red line" issue in the relationship for Beijing, which claims the self-governing island democracy as its own—US concerns about China's threat to its national security have only grown.
As China has yet to fully recover from its strict pandemic controls amid a larger slowdown and a property market crisis, among other issues, citizens there have seen their economic prospects fade.
Therefore, compared to previous US elections, interest in the candidates and their programs seems to be low, even though the presidential campaigns are still being discussed online and in China's daily news coverage.
In a well-known statement on Weibo, a Chinese social media network that functions similarly to X, a user stated, "(It) doesn't matter who it is (that wins)." "They will continue to contain China."
Observing "turmoil"
Beijing's state media has focused on social unrest and polarization in the US as the campaigns have developed in recent months.
American worries about possible violence following the election have been the most popular post on Weibo in recent days under the "US election" hashtag. Survey data from US media is used in the post, which was published by CCTV, a state broadcaster.
The Statue of Liberty was smashed in the jaws of a dragon in a recent cartoon from the state-run newspaper China Daily that was widely shared in the country's media. The cartoon was titled "political violence."
In a recent dispatch, reporters from the state-run news agency Xinhua wrote that "public opinion is in turmoil and all walks of life in the United States are extremely nervous." They also mentioned that "political violence has intensified as political polarisation and divisions in public opinion intensified in this year's US election."
On the other hand, a Xinhua-affiliated publication has described the elections as "lacking hope," with Wall Street and other "invisible forces" of power making the final decision.
The possibility of a post-election American "civil war" has been enthusiastically portrayed in videos and posts by some nationalist bloggers. This rhetoric has been replicated in conversations on the highly regulated and predominantly nationalist social media platform Weibo.
The coverage and discourse seem to be designed to telegraph the superiority of China's own political system, even as it acknowledges legitimate concerns expressed by American and worldwide media during what has been a divisive and violent US election season. There, political authority and discourse are tightly controlled by China's ruling Communist Party.
Nevertheless, a lot of people in China have also closely watched the democratic process and noted how it differs from their own.
One social media user commented on Weibo, "Although they don't have a perfect system, at least they let people question them."
The preferred candidate?
Trump and Harris have both gained a lot of attention on Chinese social media sites.
Before Harris emerged as the Democratic contender following Biden's exit from the race in July, he seemed to be largely unknown to Chinese social media users.
In keeping with the chauvinistic tone prevalent on Chinese social media platforms and reiterating remarks made by Trump himself, numerous postings and videos on Douyin, the sister video app of Tiktok, have since poked fun of the vice president, for instance by making fun of her laugh.
Nonetheless, some publicly available snippets of Harris' lectures are positive. These highlight her middle-class upbringing and ascent to the second-highest position in the United States, which contrasts with modern-day China, where males from politically powerful families frequently occupy the top positions.
“This is a true ordinary person’s story,” read one comment with hundreds of likes posted under a video with a clip of a recent Harris speech.
The Chinese internet has occasionally shown tongue-in-cheek adoration for Trump. As president, he was known as Chuan Jianguo, or "Trump, the (Chinese) nation builder," a jab that implied Beijing was surpassing Washington on the international scene thanks to his isolationist foreign policies and polarising domestic agenda.
However, Trump mania seems to have subsided following the turmoil of the previous eight years.
According to Wu Xinbo, head of the Centre for American Studies at Shanghai's Fudan University, "people are not optimistic about these two candidates … because their image and abilities can't compare to those of past figures." He cited this as one of the reasons why there seems to be less Chinese public interest in this election than in the last two.
“The second, and perhaps more important reason, is that many believe that regardless of who gets elected, US-China relations won’t improve anyway,” Wu told . “This is also a significant backdrop.”
According to observers, Communist Party leaders probably anticipate that tight relations won't get any better, regardless of the outcome of the US election.
According to Shi Yinhong, a professor of international affairs at Beijing's Renmin University, "looking to the future, regardless of whether Harris or Trump becomes the next US president, the continuity in US policy towards China will almost certainly outweigh any potential major shifts."
Although Beijing is cautious not to address any opinions over the election explicitly, it is likely that it believes Trump is increasing the level of uncertainty and, thus, the danger in the relationship. The former president, who is notorious for his erratic foreign policy, has threatened to impose taxes of up to 60% on all imports from China.
However, some say Beijing may benefit if it erodes US foreign alliances. While Trump has frequently questioned long-standing US relationships, the Biden administration has attempted to collaborate more closely with allies in Europe and Asia to confront what it views as China's "most serious long-term challenge to the international order."
Chinese policymakers will also be keenly monitoring how Trump's administration handles the conflict in Ukraine; Beijing is also concerned that he will try to improve US ties with Russia and President Vladimir Putin, who is a vital ally of Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the international scene.
The US would probably return its attention to Asia-Pacific if that war ended, which Trump has stated he can do soon. China does not want this to happen.
However, Beijing's policy elites continue to view Trump as more likely than Harris to foster a tense relationship with China.
The vice president is anticipated to follow Biden's lead, attempting to retain some open communication and interchange while continuing to put pressure on China to restrict its military and technological advancements.
This implies that there will be a combination of conflict, friction, and a little amount of communication and collaboration. Trump would make US-China relations more difficult (while). Wu stated in Shanghai, "The primary problem is that (Trump) manages US-China relations in an unusual way, lacking a sense of proportion and boundaries."
"The relationship's difficulties will change based on who is in office," is the best you can say.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WIN CASH 850$
No comments